
Rising Life Expectancy Means More Years at Risk
Americans are living longer — and that is directly increasing the likelihood that you or your loved ones will need long-term care.
According to the the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s official data, life expectancy at birth rose to 78.4 years in 2023, and a person who reaches age 65 can now expect to live nearly 20 additional years. You can review the data directly in the National Center for Health Statistics Data Brief on U.S. Life Expectancy.
Those additional years are not all healthy years. The longer you live, the greater the probability of developing chronic illness, cognitive decline, or physical limitations that require assistance with daily activities.
That is the key driver behind the growing demand for long-term care.
The Probability You Will Need Long-Term Care Is High
The most authoritative projections come from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Their national modeling shows:
- About 70 percent of people who reach age 65 will need long-term services and supports (LTSS) at some point.
- Nearly half will require paid care, not just family assistance.
- Many will need care for extended periods.
These findings are detailed in the HHS-supported analysis on lifetime risk of needing long-term services and supports.
This is not a marginal risk. It is the expected outcome for most families.
Nursing Home Care — Highest Impact
Not everyone will need a nursing home — but the percentage who do is still significant.
Research shows that approximately 35 percent of people turning 65 will enter a nursing home at some point before death.
At any given time, the United States has more than 1.3 million nursing home residents, according to the CDC FastStats on Nursing Home Care.
Medicaid is the primary payer for this type of care — but can only kick in once assets are either depleted or protected, which is why good long-term care planning matters.
How Long Does Long-Term Care Typically Last?
The duration of care is just as important as the probability.
According to federal projections:
- The average person who reaches age 65 will need about 3 years of long-term care over their lifetime.
You can review this in the official HHS report here: Long-Term Care Financing and the Need for Reform.
That three-year average includes all forms of long-term care — not just nursing homes.
Nursing Home Stays Are Often Short — But Not Always
When you isolate nursing home care, the data shows a different pattern:
- Median stay is about 5 months.
- Average stay is about 13.7 months.
- Many residents enter late in life and pass away within the first year.
These findings come from national data analysis available here: Length of Stay in Nursing Homes — Health and Retirement Study Analysis.
However, averages mask the real risk.
A smaller group of individuals remains in care for multiple years — and those are the cases that create the greatest financial consequences.
Why This Matters for Planning
Longer life expectancy does not just mean more years — it means more years of potential dependency and catastrophic nursing home costs.
The data shows:
- Long-term care is likely, so planning for it should be thought of as mandatory, not optional.
- The duration of care can be substantial.
- A meaningful percentage of people will face extended nursing home stays.
That combination is exactly why long-term care planning — including Medicaid Asset Protection Planning — is no longer optional for many families.
It is risk management.
And the risk is increasing.
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Don’t wait for a crisis. Educate yourself, talk with those you trust, and work with a knowledgeable attorney here at the Farr Law Firm to make your decisions official.